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2024-12-13 11:35:03

 Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank: The Transmission Protection Tool (TPI) was not discussed. 


Private exporters reported that they sold 334,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data. Private exporters reported that they sold 334,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and delivered them in 2024/2025. The annual soybean market in the United States began on September 1st.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone, and inflation is expected to reach 2% in the medium term. There are some discussions about cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, but it is generally believed that a 25 basis point cut is the right move. The wage level will reach a level consistent with the inflation target of 2%.


European Central Bank President Lagarde: The government should focus on reforms that promote growth.Zhongyin Fashion: Zhongyin Group, the controlling shareholder, intends to transfer some shares of the company by agreement. Zhongyin Fashion announced that Zhongyin Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, intends to transfer 12,024,000 shares of the company's unrestricted shares to Wenwen Fund and Jinhe Investment by agreement transfer. The transferred shares each account for 5.01% of the company's total share capital, accounting for 5.07% of the company's total share capital after excluding the number of shares in the repurchase account. After this equity change, Zhongyin Group holds 94.284 million shares of the company, accounting for 39.29% of the company's total share capital, accounting for 39.79% of the company's total share capital after excluding the number of shares repurchased by the special account; Wenwen Fund and Jinhe Investment each hold 12.024 million shares of the company, each accounting for 5.01% of the company's total share capital, accounting for 5.07% of the company's total share capital after excluding the number of shares repurchased from the special account.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

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